Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC on Nov. 6 that he sees an 80% chance of "a resumption of military fighting" between the U.S. and Iran in the coming days. Speaking on Squawk Box Asia McNally said he expects both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures to rise above $100 a barrel. The benchmarks were trading at about $100 and $91, respectively, at the time of the interview.
"President Donald Trump is determined, as a legacy item, almost at all costs, to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, having them give up their nuclear capabilities," McNally said. "The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is not willing to do it. And as long as that core difference in that deal space is absent, the escalation dynamic remains in place."
Why it matters
Oil is the most direct channel from the post-election foreign policy outlook to corporate costs. CFOs and treasury teams with energy exposure need that read for 2027 budgets, and McNally put a number on the risk on the day markets were repricing it. Oil prices had spiked above the $100 mark ahead of the midterm elections as investors weighed uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and the risk of further U.S. military actions.
About Bob McNally
Bob McNally is the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, a research and advisory firm that integrates energy market analysis, policy expertise and geopolitical risk assessment for investors and energy companies worldwide. From 2001 to 2003, he served as special assistant to the president on the White House National Economic Council and, in 2003, as senior director for international energy on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush. He is the author of Crude Volatility, which received the 2023 IAEE Marcel Boiteux Best International Energy Economics Book Award and the 2024 USAEE Adelman-Frankel Award. The book argues that the 2008 boom and 2015 collapse mark a structural return to extreme price swings in oil markets.
Bob McNally is exclusively represented by Stellant Group for speaking engagements including keynotes, fireside chats and panel discussions with leadership teams thinking through energy price volatility, geopolitical shocks and the intersection of energy markets and national security. For our consulting or advisory offerings, please reach out for a custom proposal.
