Natasha Sarin

Professor of Law, Yale Law School · President and Co-Founder, The Budget Lab at Yale · Former Counselor to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

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Natasha Sarin helped shape U.S. economic policy inside the Treasury Department. Now she gives business leaders the nonpartisan data they need to plan around tariffs, taxes and AI's effects on the labor market.

Geopolitics & Global Affairs Trade Policy Financial Markets Political Risk Geopolitics

New York, United States

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Data says inflation would be coming down if not for trade war escalation, says Yale's Natasha Sarin

Bio

About Natasha Sarin

Natasha Sarin is an economist and tax policy expert who helps business leaders navigate the forces reshaping the global economy, from tariffs to AI's effects on the labor market. She is the president and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale, a nonpartisan research center whose forecasts of federal policy impacts have become a leading source on tariff data.

At the United States Treasury Department, her work focused on narrowing the gap between the taxes owed by the American public and those collected by the Internal Revenue Service.

Topics

Natasha's Keynote Topics

Artificial intelligence is quickly becoming one of the most powerful engines of economic growth, but the rules governing it have not kept pace. Even amid trade disruption and political volatility, AI investment has surged, with capital expenditures estimated to reach 2% of U.S. GDP in 2025, up from virtually zero just a few years ago. This unprecedented growth has enormous implications for productivity, labor markets and long-term competitiveness. But, while AI has not yet produced major labor-market disruption, according to Natasha Sarin, Yale professor and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale, businesses and governments cannot afford to be complacent. As her cutting-edge research at the Budget Lab shows, while businesses and policymakers may not have yet seen significant changes due to tech, they should be preparing for the technology to become more widely adopted in the economy. Sarin explains why today’s regulatory choices will shape economic outcomes for decades to come and what’s at risk if policy fails to evolve alongside technology. Attendees leave with a clear outline for anticipating regulatory shifts, assessing second-order risks, and aligning talent and investment strategies with the realities of an AI-driven economy.

Tariffs may end up being the most significant middle-class tax increase in U.S. history, raising prices on everything from clothing to electronics. They are reshaping the economic landscape in ways that are difficult to undo. As the leading non-partisan source on tariff data, Yale professor Natasha Sarin shows how these policies are simultaneously a drag on households while becoming a critical revenue stream for government. She unpacks the constitutional, fiscal and business implications of a $3 trillion revenue shift, explains why retaliation has been muted and explores how companies should plan for a future in which tariffs are likely here to stay. Attendees leave with practical insights into how tariff policy impacts sectors, households and markets, as well as tools to better navigate investment, pricing and strategic planning in a volatile fiscal environment.

The U.S. labor market is slowing, with hiring stalled across most industries outside of healthcare and education. At the same time, flexible work arrangements and AI-driven productivity gains are redefining what work looks like. Natasha Sarin, a Yale professor who has studied structural joblessness for more than a decade, explains how organizations can understand and adapt to key shifts, from stagflationary pressures to the changing role of women and care in the workforce. She shares real-time insights from the Budget Lab at Yale, which she co-founded, on how AI adoption is affecting labor dynamics and what skills and roles will be most critical in the next wave of economic activity. Attendees gain data-driven tools to anticipate workforce shifts, make smarter hiring and training decisions and prepare their organizations to thrive amid uncertainty.