Daniel Yergin co-authored Nation Building through LNG and NGLs: Powering Canada's Economic Growth, Trade and Global Energy Security, which S&P Global released Nov. 12. The study examines how Canada could become the world’s third-largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, and what reaching the federal government’s goal of 100 million tonnes per year of LNG export capacity would mean for its economy and its global standing.
The report finds that in an Accelerated Development Case, the LNG and natural gas liquids value chain could attract C$1 trillion of upstream and infrastructure investment through 2050. It could support an average of 250,000 jobs a year and add C$888 billion to GDP. Canada ranks sixth in the world in natural gas production, fourth in NGLs and fourth in crude oil, backed by a low-cost, low-emissions-intensity resource base.
Yergin gave interviews to CBC News and Bloomberg on Nov. 12. “If Canada can address its permitting and cost issues, it can play a very big role in global LNG, which would be obviously beneficial for the Canadian economy. It would help to globalize its economy and make Canada less dependent upon its neighbor to the south,” he told CBC News. He pointed to Canada’s shipping advantages to Asia and to growing global demand for more diverse supply after disruptions in the Middle East.
The study identifies permitting timelines and pipeline costs as key hurdles. According to the report, permitting in Canada has taken 27 months longer than in Texas, and pipelines cost 160% more to build. Reaching the 100-million-tonne target would require tripling upstream drilling, building 3,000 kilometers of pipeline and cutting development timelines in half. The report warns that the current investment window is closing and that Canada lacks shovel-ready projects. It calls for Indigenous partnerships, faster permitting and stable policy to strengthen investor confidence.
Yergin is vice chairman of S&P Global and chairman of CERAWeek. He won the Pulitzer Prize for The Prize. His most recent book, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations, examines how climate, the shale revolution and the rivalry among the United States, Russia and China are reshaping global power. The Washington Post called it “a tour de force of geopolitical understanding.”
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